Who Will Be The 2023 MLB MVPs?

*** It’s Final! Congrats to Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. for winning the 2023 AL and NL Most Valuable Player honors, respectively. ***

The 2023 MLB season is over, and the Texas Rangers have won their first World Series title by defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks in six games. But before we turn our attention to the offseason, let’s take a look at the MVP race in each league and see who has the best chance of taking home the most prestigious individual award in baseball.

American League MVP

The AL MVP race is essentially a one-man show, as Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels has dominated both on the mound and at the plate in a historic season that has not been seen since Babe Ruth. Ohtani finished the regular season with a 3.18 ERA, 236 strikeouts, and 10 wins in 28 starts as a pitcher, and a .312/.422/.658 slash line, 49 home runs, 117 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases as a hitter. He became the first player in MLB history to hit 40 homers and steal 20 bases in the same season, and the first pitcher to strike out 200 batters and hit 20 homers in the same season. He also led the AL in slugging percentage, OPS (1.080), and total bases (362).

Ohtani’s odds to win the AL MVP are so overwhelming that he is essentially a lock for the award, despite missing the final two weeks of the season due to an oblique injury. According to FanDuel, his odds are -20000, meaning you would have to bet $20,000 to win $100. The next closest player on the oddsboard is Corey Seager of the Texas Rangers, who has a +2000 chance, meaning you would win $2,000 if you bet $100. Seager had a great season for the World Series champions, hitting .308/.375/.547 with 35 homers and 112 RBIs, but he is no match for Ohtani’s historic performance.

The other candidates for the AL MVP are Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners, Marcus Semien of the Texas Rangers, and Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals. Rodriguez, a 21-year-old rookie, had a breakout season, hitting .321/.382/.598 with 29 homers, 89 RBIs, and 23 steals in 123 games. He helped the Mariners reach the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles. Semien, who signed a one-year deal with the Rangers in the offseason, had a career year, hitting .287/.356/.533 with 38 homers, 105 RBIs, and 25 steals in 162 games. He played a key role in the Rangers’ surprising run to the World Series, and set a new MLB record for most homers by a second baseman in a single season. Witt Jr., another 21-year-old rookie, was one of the most exciting players in the league, hitting .284/.341/.521 with 27 homers, 82 RBIs, and 32 steals in 139 games. He showed off his five-tool potential, and finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

National League MVP

The NL MVP race is much more competitive, as two superstars are neck and neck for the award: Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves and Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both players had phenomenal seasons, leading their teams to the playoffs and putting up eye-popping numbers. Acuña Jr. became the fifth player in MLB history to join the 40/40 club, hitting .305/.411/.649 with 47 homers and 61 steals in 156 games. He also led the NL in runs scored (137), slugging percentage, OPS (1.060), and total bases (378). He was the driving force behind the Braves’ fourth consecutive NL East title, and helped them reach the NLCS, where they lost to the Dodgers in seven games. Betts, who won the NL MVP in 2020, had another stellar season, hitting .319/.402/.596 with 41 homers, 105 RBIs, and 29 steals in 154 games. He also led the NL in hits (201) and doubles (48), and played stellar defense in right field, winning his sixth consecutive Gold Glove Award. He was the catalyst for the Dodgers’ 106-win season, and helped them reach the World Series for the fourth time in five years, where they lost to the Rangers in six games.

According to FanDuel, Acuña Jr. is the slight favorite to win the NL MVP, with odds of -550, meaning you would have to bet $550 to win $100. Betts is not far behind, with odds of +350, meaning you would win $350 if you bet $100. The race is so close that it could come down to the final votes, and both players have strong cases for the award. Acuña Jr. had the edge in power and speed, while Betts had the edge in average and defense. Acuña Jr. played for a division winner, while Betts played for a wild-card team. Acuña Jr. had a higher WAR (9.7), while Betts had a higher WPA (5.6). It will be interesting to see who gets the nod from the voters, and who will join the elite club of players who have won multiple MVP awards.

The other candidates for the NL MVP are Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves, Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves, and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. Olson, who was traded from the Oakland Athletics to the Braves in July, had a monster season, hitting .294/.378/.612 with 49 homers and 129 RBIs in 159 games. He formed a fearsome duo with Acuña Jr. in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, and helped them win the NL East. Freeman, who won the NL MVP in 2020, had another great season, hitting .303/.394/.547 with 34 homers and 102 RBIs in 162 games. He was a consistent force for the Braves, and reached the 300-homer milestone in his career. Tatis Jr., who signed a 14-year, $340 million contract extension with the Padres in February, had a spectacular season, hitting .282/.364/.619 with 42 homers, 97 RBIs, and 25 steals in 130 games. He also played multiple positions, starting at shortstop, center field, and right field. He was the most exciting player in the league, but his team missed the playoffs after a disappointing second half.